Although the polls all gave Barack Obama a more than comfy double digit lead, Clinton beat him 39% to his 37% with John Edwards coming in a distant 17% third.
What happened? Lots of theories out there.
Bill Clinton's "aggressive campaigning" delivered a punch to Obama.
Hillary Clinton's tears created sympathy votes.
Polls made Obama supporters over-confident and they stayed home.
Polls made independent and Republican Obama supporters feel safe to vote for McCain.
Polls galvanized Clinton supporters especially women and they got out and voted.
Swift rhetoric/tactic changes by Clinton did the trick.
All of the above.
Well, I vote for all of the above. This is going to be so much fun. History being made all over the place and polls and news pundits manipulating the candidates tactics. It's interesting to watch how fast they all dance.
On one hand this has been wonderful. Obama winning a presidential caucus in a 99% white state and Clinton being the first woman to win a presidential primary give both candidates a place in history and shows some growth in America's character. Listening to voter's comments across the nation, it seems America may actually be getting to a point of being able to focus on what these two brilliant folks can bring to this nation, not just on their race and gender. We'll see.
On the other hand, I realize image is important and candidates need to say the right stuff but I am beginning to hate the word "change". John McCain said it four times in one sentence. Geesh!
How fast can Hillary do the image dance? Well, the huge young folk turnout for Obama prompted much commentary that Hillary had old cronies behind her on stage during her Iowa speech. To the young folks, this made her look like a relic from the past. Anyone notice the quick difference at the New Hampshire speech? No Madeline Albright, not even Bill. Behind Clinton a sea of youth, and prominent on stage, yep Chelsea. I get this, I just hate when it's so obvious. I like, respect and trust Madeline Albright, I hope Hillary (or whoever) will keep her close.
Iowa and New Hampshire are just spring training. By convention time, there will have been lots of tears all around (real and crocodile) lots of jabs and punches and we'll see what they are all made of.
Hillary in Iowa
Happy Hillary in New Hampshire
3 comments:
Yea - she is happy. But not for long - Obama is coming back super strong!
Jackie,
I agree with you that the campaign is very interesting. On that note, I think the differences in the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary is worth paying attention to.
In the caucus people had to make their voting intentions known publicly. In New Hampshire people made their voting choice in the voting booth.
So did Iowans want to seem progressive and forward thinking by Caucusing for Sen. Obama?
And did the voters in New Hampshire say one thing publicly, in the polls, and then do another in the booth?
I'm not sure of the answers but the answers may foretell the future.
Thanks for the mention.
Yes MDC, that is another posibility that goes on the list. And yep, time will tell.
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